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Sunday, August 1, 2010

Assessing Past Picks

If you recall a couple of months ago, I chose my personal Phisix and called it Nisix.   Today, I decided to check out how it has done over the past eight months versus the real index.  I won't bother to fix the table (I'm low on aesthetics you see), but it would seem that 4/7 of the stocks in my index outperformed the Phisix.    If I had placed equal weights on each stock, the next appreciation (including dividends) is 28% compared to the Phisix' 18%.  Note though that I've not been able to place dividend gains on the Phisix stocks so let's assume a 3% improvement for the Phisix at 21%.  Not bad.  My index would still be competitive.  I really got hit with the property stocks though as they sorely underperformed. 

As for my technical and fundamental picks, it's about half and half.  My fundamental calls were quite accurate, but my technical calls were a bit "optimistic".  I was hoping for a major correction in October in preparation for the traditional end of year window dressing but it didn't really happen.  Tsk.  Well, I think it's time to play again (I get bored for long stretches).  Let's see what's going on with this market, shall we?

 Nov 4 Open    July 31 Open    Gain    Dividend    Gain with Dividend
JFC    49.5    76.9    155%    1.43    158%
SMB    8.9    9.8    110%    0.27    113%
UBP    35    46.5    133%    2.2    139%
BDO    34    42.5    125%    0    125%
MEG    1.48    1.56    105%    0.019    107%
SMPH    9.8    10.76    110%    0.25    112%
ABS    30    40.5    135%    1.11    139%
Phisix    2908.5    3426.96    118%       

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